Tecovirimat for Clade I MPXV Infection in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
PALM007 Writing Group, Ali R, Alonga J, Biampata JL, Kombozi Basika M, Maljkovic Berry I, Bisento N, Blum E, Bonnett T, Cone K, Crozier I, Davey R, Dilu A, Dodd LE, Gulati I, Hruby D, Ibanda A, Isse F, Kasareka SS, Kayembe G, Kojan R, Luzolo EK, Lane HC, Lawanga L, Liesenborghs L, Shosongo Lunghe C, Lula Y, Lusakibanza M, Lutete GT, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Miranda A, Mukadi-Bamuleka D, Mukendi G, Lupola PM, Muyembe-Tamfum JJ, Ndungunu R, Nganga B, Ntamabyaliro N, Nussenblatt V, Omulepu I, Omalokoho Onosomba J, Proschan M, Rubenstein K, Saknite I, Schechner A, Shaw-Saliba K, Sivahera B, Smolskis M, Tillman A, Tkaczyk E, Tshimanga C, Tshiani Mbaya O, Tshomba A, Yemba Unda Tshomba F, Vallee D, Vogel S, Weyers S
- DOI
- 10.1056/NEJMoa2412439
- Record issued
- 2026-08-10
- Engine
- 7.29.0
- Exported
- 2026-09-21
Prepared by Alpha1. This document is confidential: it is intended for the recipient it was shared with and must not be redistributed. The live record at alpha1science.com/verify/5686e0a9-27af-42c8-800a-4e5bbeccaa93 is authoritative.
- Only 2 of 3 reviewers completed. Each verdict below is the majority of 2, not of 3 — the disagreement between reviewers that normally filters out one model's noise could not be applied.
- This run hit its time budget: at least one step billed work that never produced a result.
How this rating was calculated
- IntegrityIntegrity concern−0.5★
- ReportingKey resources not met−0.5★
- ReportingData & code availability not met−0.5★
- ReportingBiological variables partially met−0.25★
- The numeric-impossibility checks (GRIM/GRIMMER/DEBIT/SPRITE) did not run on this paper: the pass that reads its reported means did not complete. No reported mean was checked for arithmetic impossibility.
- 01Key resources not identified
The PCR kit is identified, but the investigational product (tecovirimat) is not fully described (manufacturer, formulation, strength, dose regimen) and statistical software is not named.
“At each site, MPXV nucleic acid was detected using the RADI platform (KH Medical) MPOX Detection Kit”
MethodsFind in source - 02Data and code not shared
No data availability statement, repository deposit, accession numbers, or code sharing are mentioned in the manuscript.
This Kaimen Rigor review uses Kaimen Rigor reviewers trained on a curated corpus of high-fidelity and retracted papers, with expert supervision and curation. It can still make mistakes; verify each finding against the source before relying on it.
The paper reports a well-conducted double-blind RCT of tecovirimat for clade I mpox, with strong design, ethical approvals, and transparent reporting of null results. The main weaknesses are missing data availability statement, incomplete identification of key resources (statistical software and tecovirimat formulation), and a missing baseline weight variable.
Two independent review runs of the same model (DeepSeek V4) were synthesized; the copies converged on most dimensions but diverged on biological variables (weight reporting) and key resources (tecovirimat details). The copyedit pass flagged minor issues. No retracted or non-existent references were found. The statistics recomputation was limited to 1 test and was consistent.
Numerical inconsistencies
None foundValues that contradict each other or are impossible for the stated sample: recomputed p-values and test statistics, GRIM/GRIMMER checks on summary numbers, percentages against their own counts, totals against their parts, and estimates against their own confidence intervals.
Checked — nothing surfaced.
Recomputed 1 test: 1 consistent, 0 inconsistent; 1 via agent-written checks.
- CONSISTENTreported p = .140 · recomputed p = .111Reviewer 1Primary endpoint crHR 1.13 with 95% CI 0.97–1.31 maps to a two-sided Wald p of about 0.11, slightly below the reported Gray's-test p of 0.14.
“The stratified crHR for days to lesion resolution was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97 to 1.31; p=0.14)”
Taken as given: the crHR is a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard ratio reported with a two-sided 95% CI, so SE=(log(1.31)−log(0.97))/(2×1.96); the reported p=0.14 comes from Gray's test, which is not identical to the Wald test on the crHR, so a small difference is expected and is not an errorMethod: Two-sided p from log-scale estimate and 95% CI (Wald approximation) via pCI(estimate, low, high, log=1); compared to the reported Gray's-test p.How we recomputed it: pCI(1.13, 0.97, 1.31, 1)
Overstated conclusions
1 finding · worst lowConclusions that reach past what the paper's own results support — including a significance claim that no longer holds when the statistic is recomputed, and efficacy resting on an unvalidated surrogate endpoint.
- Conclusions only partially backed by the presented evidenceAssessed
6 major claims checked against the paper's own evidence: all adequately supported.
- partialReviewer 2The level of care provided in PALM007 likely improved outcomes.The paper compares observed mortality (1.7%) to historical case-fatality rate (4.6%), but this is a post-hoc comparison and not a controlled analysis; it is plausible but not proven.Evidence: Mortality 1.7% vs 4.6% case-fatality rate from DRC surveillance.
“While the level of care provided in PALM007 likely improved outcomes, it may not be easily provided in resource-limited and outpatient settings.”
DiscussionFind in source - supportedReviewers 1, 2Tecovirimat did not improve days to lesion resolution in Clade I MPXV infected individuals.The primary crHR of 1.13 (95% CI 0.97–1.31, p=0.14) and median 7 vs 8 days directly support a null primary finding.Evidence: Stratified crHR 1.13 (0.97–1.31; p=0.14); median 7 vs 8 days.
“Tecovirimat did not improve days to lesion resolution in Clade I MPXV infected individuals.”
ConclusionFind in source - supportedReviewers 1, 2No safety concerns were identified with tecovirimat.Comparable SAE (5.1% vs 5.0%) and AE (72.9% vs 70.5%) rates across arms support the safety claim.Evidence: SAEs 5.1% vs 5.0%; AEs 72.9% vs 70.5%.
“No safety concerns were identified.”
AbstractFind in source - supportedReviewer 1Tecovirimat did not improve declines in viremia (PCR-negativity).PCR-negativity at 14 days was similar across blood, lesion, and oropharyngeal samples in both arms, supporting no treatment-related virologic effect.Evidence: At 14 days, PCR-negativity in blood, lesion and oropharyngeal samples were similar in both treatment arms.
“No treatment differences were observed with any sample type (blood, lesion, or oropharynx).”
AbstractFind in source - supportedReviewer 1A pre-specified subgroup analysis suggested faster lesion resolution in Kole, but this was not a robust treatment effect.The paper transparently reports the Kole finding as exploratory, explains it via baseline severity asymmetry, and shows adjusted models eliminated the interaction, so the claim as hedged is supported.Evidence: Site interaction HR=1.59 (1.15–2.21); adjusted models showed no interaction; virologic endpoints showed no independent enhanced clearance.
“Models that adjusted for baseline imbalances in lesion count and blood, OP and skin PCR cycle-thresholds (CT) were explored. With these adjustments, no interaction of treatment effect with site was observed.”
DiscussionFind in source - supportedReviewer 2Our study highlights the importance of conducting clinical trials of investigational treatments during outbreaks.The trial successfully conducted a randomized controlled trial during an outbreak, providing evidence for tecovirimat, which had been used without such evidence.Evidence: The trial design and execution are described; the conclusion is directly supported by the fact that the study was conducted during an outbreak and provided definitive evidence.
“Our study highlights the importance of conducting clinical trials of investigational treatments during outbreaks including studies of products that may have been licensed in the absence of such studies.”
DiscussionFind in source
Data authenticity concerns
1 finding · worst lowAn adversarial read for patterns associated with data that may not be genuine: results that look too clean, implausibly large effects, duplicated data or images, and methods that do not match the results reported.
- Methods and results do not matchAssessed
1 integrity concern flagged (0 high).
- lowmethod result mismatchThe reported primary p=0.14 (Gray's test) corresponds to a Wald-transformed CI p of about 0.11. This is plausibly explained by the difference between Gray's test and the Wald test on the subdistribution hazard ratio, so it is a mild note rather than evidence of error.
“The stratified crHR for days to lesion resolution was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97 to 1.31; p=0.14)”
ResultsFind in source
Reporting gaps
3 findings · worst highRequired detail the manuscript never states — study design, biological variables, ethics approval and consent, key resources, statistical reporting, data and code availability, and overall transparency.
- Data and code not sharedAssessed
- Key resources not identifiedAssessed
- Biological variables underreported (sex, age, strain)Assessed
The Background cites non-human primate efficacy models, healthy-volunteer safety studies, prior smallpox antiviral development, and the clade IIb outbreak/PHEIC context, and explicitly states that RCT evidence in mpox patients is lacking. The rationale linking this gap to the PALM007 objectives is explicit, and the prior limitations (efficacy unknown, dosing 'established from animal models and concentrations in healthy human volunteers') are acknowledged and addressed by the trial design.
“Evidence from randomized controlled trials demonstrating safety and efficacy in mpox patients is lacking.”
“Tecovirimat, originally developed as an antiviral against smallpox, is an oral orthopoxvirus-selective antiviral with activity against MPXV in non-human primate models”
“Here, we report results from a randomized controlled trial of the safety and efficacy of tecovirimat for mpox (clade I MPXV) in Congolese patients in a region with endemic disease.”
“Tecovirimat, originally developed as an antiviral against smallpox, is an oral orthopoxvirus-selective antiviral with activity against MPXV in non-human primate models and is being globally evaluated as a potential therapeutic for mpox”
“Evidence from randomized controlled trials demonstrating safety and efficacy in mpox patients is lacking.”
The paper describes online randomization stratified by symptom onset and site, double-blind design with unblinded pharmacists, an a priori power calculation, and pre-specified eligibility criteria. The analysis population is ITT, and missing data methods are described.
“Enrolled patients were randomized (1:1), stratified by days from onset of symptoms (≤7 days vs >7 days) and study site.”
“To detect a 40% improvement in lesion-resolution rate, 318 resolution events were needed for 85% power and 5% two-sided type-I error.”
“The primary analysis was based on the intent-to-treat population”
“Randomization was conducted online with secure envelopes available as a backup for internet outages.”
“PALM007 was a double-blind, randomized controlled trial”
“To detect a 40% improvement in lesion-resolution rate, 318 resolution events were needed for 85% power and 5% two-sided type-I error.”
Table 1 reports sex distribution and age, but weight is not included in the baseline table. Health status is reported through malnutrition, HIV, and other comorbidities. Race/ethnicity is only implied as 'Congolese' without specific categories.
“At baseline, most patients were <18 years old (64.3%); 48.9% were female.”
“Female sex, no. (%) | 141 (47.8) | 151 (50.0)”
“Moderate or severe malnutrition was recorded in 18.6% of cases.”
The trial was approved by the named ethics committee of the Public Health School, University of Kinshasa, and authorized by the Congolese regulatory authority (ACOREP). Written informed consent and pediatric assent are described. Compliance with ICH GCP-E6 is stated. All applicable human-research ethics criteria are satisfied.
“The trial was approved by the ethics committee of the Public Health School, University of Kinshasa and authorized by the Congolese Pharmaceutical Regulatory Authority (ACOREP).”
“All patients provided written informed consent. Assent was obtained from children aged 12 to 17 years, as required in the DRC.”
“The protocol was conducted in compliance with ICH GCP-E6.”
“The trial was approved by the ethics committee of the Public Health School, University of Kinshasa and authorized by the Congolese Pharmaceutical Regulatory Authority (ACOREP).”
“All patients provided written informed consent. Assent was obtained from children aged 12 to 17 years, as required in the DRC.”
“The protocol was conducted in compliance with ICH GCP-E6.”
The MPOX Detection Kit (KH Medical) is adequately identified. However, tecovirimat is only named with manufacturer (SIGA) but without formulation/strength details. The paper references 'see Protocol' for dosing. Additionally, no statistical software is identified for the analysis.
“SIGA provided donations of tecovirimat and placebo pills for the study.”
“Tecovirimat dosing was weight-based per investigator brochure”
“At each site, MPXV nucleic acid was detected using the RADI platform (KH Medical) MPOX Detection Kit”
The primary analysis uses Fine-Gray and Cox models with exact p-values and 95% CIs. Kaplan-Meier curves and tables are presented. Assumption checking for proportional hazards is not reported, and the software used is not named. No mathematical implausibilities were detected.
“The stratified crHR for days to lesion resolution was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97 to 1.31; p=0.14)”
“based on Gray’s test of the competing-risk (“subdistribution”) hazard ratio (crHR)”
“The primary analysis was based on the intent-to-treat population, evaluating differences in days to lesion resolution, based on Gray’s test of the competing-risk (“subdistribution”) hazard ratio (crHR)”
“The stratified crHR for days to lesion resolution was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97 to 1.31; p=0.14)”
The paper does not include any statement about data availability, nor does it mention deposition of data in a public repository or sharing of analysis code. The only link provided is to the trial protocol.
“Full details of study design can be seen in the protocol at nejm.org (https://nejm.org)”
The paper includes a detailed methods section, registration number, reports primary and secondary outcomes including negative results, discusses limitations, and draws conclusions consistent with the evidence. Missing: reference to CONSORT or other reporting guideline, and a separate COI statement (though funding sources are disclosed).
“Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (http://Clinicaltrials.gov) NCT05559099”
“Among the limitations is the subjectivity of the primary endpoint.”
“Tecovirimat did not improve days to lesion resolution in Clade I MPXV infected individuals.”
“Among the limitations is the subjectivity of the primary endpoint.”
Registered (1 ID: ClinicalTrials.gov). No reporting guideline cited.
Broken references and links
None foundReferences checked against Crossref, OpenAlex and Retraction Watch for retractions and resolvability, plus declared data and code links probed for whether they resolve to content matching the paper.
Checked — nothing surfaced.
Checked 17 references by DOI: 8 verified — 9 no DOI (shown, not verified).
- NO DOISmallpox and its eradicationNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIMulti-country outbreak of mpox, external situation report #31No DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIMpox (monkeypox) outbreak 2022No DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIMpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Analysis of National Epidemiological and Laboratory Surveillance Data, 2010 – 2023No DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIWHO PHEIC declaration 2024No DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIhttps://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/blue-print/day-1_jean-jacques-muyembe_drc_monkeypox-meeting_02june2022.pdf?sfvrsn=d133676a_3No DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIClinical Pharmacology and Biopharmaceutics Review(s) of TecovirimatNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIA proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing riskNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIPharmacokinetics of tecovirimat in persons with mpox: results from ACTGNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
3 data/code links checked; 1 live.
- datahttps://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05559099LIVEHTTP 200Resolves, but the content could not be matched to the paper.
- datahttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2412439UNVERIFIEDHTTP 403Liveness indeterminate — content not checked.
- datahttps://nejm.orgUNVERIFIEDHTTP 403Liveness indeterminate — content not checked.
Copyediting
6 minorWording, consistency and formatting errors that need correcting before submission.
No major wording or formatting errors. 6 minor suggestions below.
6 copyedit issues flagged: mostly punctuation, consistency, other.
- MINORpunctuationResults“range:1,10264”→ range: 1, 10264 (or 1–10,264)Run-on punctuation obscures the lesion-count range.
- MINORconsistencyDiscussion“Approximately 50% of nasopharyngeal MPXV PCRs remained positive at 14 days”→ oropharyngealMethods/Table use 'oropharynx'/'OP swab'; Discussion uses 'nasopharyngeal'.
- MINORpunctuationAbstract, Results“crHRs:1.16 (95% CI:0.98 to 1.37)”→ crHRs: 1.16 (95% CI: 0.98 to 1.37)Inconsistent colon spacing in several CI/statistic phrases.
- MINORotherTitle section“pmc 1 Placebo-Controlled Trial of Tecovirimat for Endemic (Clade I MPXV) mpox, DRC”→ Remove 'pmc 1' stray text at the beginning.Possible metadata artifact from PMC submission.
- MINORpunctuationAbstract“Methods We conducted...”→ Add a line break or period after 'Methods' for clarity.Abstract sections lack clear separation.
- MINORconsistencyResults“SAEs and AEs were reported in 5.1% and 72.9% of patients receiving tecovirimat, respectively, compared to 5.0% and 70.5% on placebo.”→ Consider rephrasing to improve clarity: 'SAEs occurred in 5.1% of tecovirimat patients and 5.0% of placebo patients; AEs occurred in 72.9% and 70.5%, respectively.'Minor readability issue.
This is a post-publication audit. The published study is methodologically robust with no threats to validity. An informed reader should note that the data availability statement is missing, the statistical software is not named, and baseline weight is not reported — these are reporting gaps, not errors, and do not warrant a correction. The authors should consider adding a data availability statement and a COI statement in any future version or correction.
- 1.HIGHdata codeAdd a data availability statement specifying a managed-access route for de-identified trial data (e.g., via a data access committee or platform with conditions/timeframe) in a new 'Data Availability' section near the Funding statement.A data availability statement is a required element for a data-driven clinical trial; its absence is a major reporting gap that readers and journals would expect.
- 2.HIGHreportingAdd a formal Conflicts of Interest declaration (even if 'all authors declare no competing interests' plus the SIGA relationship) alongside the funding statement.A separate COI declaration is standard for clinical trials and ensures transparency regarding potential financial interests.
- 3.HIGHrigorName the statistical software and version used for all analyses (Fine-Gray, Cox, Kaplan-Meier) in the Statistical Analysis section.Reproducibility requires knowing the software and version used; this is a common reporting requirement.
- 4.HIGHrigorProvide full identification of tecovirimat: include manufacturer, formulation, strength (e.g., 200 mg capsules), and the exact dose regimen in the Methods, not only a reference to the protocol.The investigational product should be fully described in the manuscript for transparency and reproducibility.
- 5.MEDIUMreportingInclude weight in the baseline demographics table (Table 1) as a key variable, especially since dosing is weight-based.Weight is a fundamental baseline characteristic and its absence is a notable omission for a trial with weight-based dosing.
- 6.MEDIUMreportingAdd an explicit statement that the trial follows CONSORT reporting guidelines and provide a completed CONSORT checklist as supplementary material.Referencing the CONSORT guideline is standard for RCTs and improves reporting transparency.
- 7.MEDIUMstatisticsReport the verification of the proportional hazards assumption for the Cox model and the Fine-Gray model (e.g., using Schoenfeld residuals) in the Statistical Analysis section.Assumption checking is a standard part of survival analysis and its absence leaves a minor gap in the analysis quality.
- 8.LOWcopyeditFix the run-on punctuation in the lesion-count range 'range:1,10264' to a clear range (e.g., 'range: 1–10,264') in the Results.Correct formatting improves readability and avoids confusion.
- 9.LOWcopyeditCorrect the inconsistency between 'nasopharyngeal' and 'oropharyngeal' swab terms in the Discussion (the Methods/Table use 'oropharynx') to maintain consistency.Consistent terminology is essential for scientific accuracy.
- 10.LOWcopyeditRemove the stray 'pmc 1' text at the beginning of the title.This appears to be a metadata artifact and should be cleaned for the final version.
- 11.LOWcopyeditAdd line breaks or periods after section headers in the Abstract (e.g., 'Methods' should be followed by a period or line break) for clarity.Improves readability of the structured abstract.
- 12.LOWcopyeditRephrase the SAE/AE sentence in the Results to improve clarity, e.g., 'SAEs occurred in 5.1% of tecovirimat patients and 5.0% of placebo patients; AEs occurred in 72.9% and 70.5%, respectively.'Minor readability improvement.
The star rating is the report’s one-glance summary. Every paper starts at 5★ and loses stars for the concrete problems the review finds — so a rating is never a vague average, it’s a running total you can read line by line under “How this rating was calculated.”
- Reporting — 8 dimensionseach dimension that fully fails−½★
- each dimension partially met−¼★
- Statistics · Integrity · Claimseach serious problem−1★
- each medium problem−½★
- Citationseach retracted or unverifiable reference−¼★
- Copyeditonly when the manuscript needs a full edit−½★
The rating never drops below 1★, and a demonstrable critical failure (an impossible statistic, a proven ethics violation) caps it at 1★ on its own — so the stars can never look healthy when the verdict is CRITICAL.
The rating draws on a panel of agents. Three independent Kaimen Rigor reviewers grade the eight dimensions below across several independent passes (the shown verdict is their majority vote — steadier than any single run), isolate the paper’s major claims and check its own evidence backs them, and flag integrity concerns. Alongside them, a citation agent resolves every reference against Crossref, OpenAlex, and Retraction Watch; a statistics agent recomputes reported tests; and rule-based checks verify that declared data/code links actually resolve. Full text is required — an abstract-only submission is not analyzed.
Graded against NIH, MDAR, ARRIVE 2.0, CONSORT, EQUATOR, and RRID guidelines. A dimension that doesn’t apply to the study type is skipped, never penalized.
This Kaimen Rigor review is model-assisted and is not a substitute for formal expert review. It complements human evaluation by surfacing potential methodological concerns — verify each finding against the source.