Asundexian for Secondary Stroke Prevention.
Sharma M, Dong Q, Hirano T, Kasner SE, Saver JL, Masjuan J, Demchuk AM, Cordonnier C, Bereczki D, Tsivgoulis G, Veltkamp R, Staikov I, Bae HJ, Campbell BCV, Zini A, Lee IH, Kovar M, Mikulik R, Lemmens R, Ferro JM, Robinson T, Christensen H, Ozturk S, Leker RR, Turcani P, Slowik A, Amaya P, Hoo FK, De Marchis GM, Knoflach M, Sylaja PN, Putaala J, Coutinho JM, van der Worp HB, Miglane E, Matijošaitis V, Lindgren AG, Sampaio Silva G, Sandset EC, Turuspekova ST, Amarenco P, Sheth KN, Smith EE, Eikelboom JW, Joundi RA, Schulze K, Xu L, Heenan L, Colorado P, Keller L, Muehlhofer E, Neumann C, Mundl H, Shoamanesh A, OCEANIC-STROKE Investigators
- DOI
- 10.1056/NEJMoa2513880
- Record issued
- 2026-08-15
- Engine
- 7.39.0
- Exported
- 2026-09-20
Prepared by Alpha1. This document is confidential: it is intended for the recipient it was shared with and must not be redistributed. The live record at alpha1science.com/verify/e01e0490-022d-4280-80af-4401a77de745 is authoritative.
How this rating was calculated
- ReportingData & code availability partially met−0.25★
- No data or code availability links were detected to verify.
This Kaimen Rigor review uses Kaimen Rigor reviewers trained on a curated corpus of high-fidelity and retracted papers, with expert supervision and curation. It can still make mistakes; verify each finding against the source before relying on it.
This is a well-conducted phase 3 randomized controlled trial with rigorous design, clear reporting of methods, and appropriate statistical analysis. The main weakness is the vague data sharing statement, which lacks specific access mechanisms. Minor reporting gaps include not naming the statistical software and not explicitly citing a reporting guideline.
Both reviewers agreed on all dimensions; no divergence. The study is an interventional trial; all non-applicable sub-criteria (e.g., animal housing, cell lines) were excluded. The statistics verification recomputed 5 reported tests consistently, but this does not confirm the entire statistical analysis.
Numerical inconsistencies
None foundValues that contradict each other or are impossible for the stated sample: recomputed p-values and test statistics, GRIM/GRIMMER checks on summary numbers, percentages against their own counts, totals against their parts, and estimates against their own confidence intervals.
Checked — nothing surfaced.
Recomputed 5 tests: 5 consistent, 0 inconsistent; 5 via agent-written checks.
- CONSISTENTreported p < .001 · recomputed p = <.001Reviewers 1, 2Primary efficacy outcome: ischemic stroke hazard ratio 0.74 with 95% CI 0.65-0.84, p<0.001
“cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.84; P<0.001”
Taken as given: The hazard ratio is 0.74 and the 95% CI is 0.65 to 0.84.; The CI is two-sided at 95%.; The p-value is two-sided.Method: Recomputed two-sided p-value from the hazard ratio and its 95% CI using the normal approximation for the log hazard ratio.How we recomputed it: pCI(0.74, 0.65, 0.84, 1) - CONSISTENTreported p = .460 · recomputed p = .478Reviewers 1, 2Primary safety outcome: major bleeding hazard ratio 1.10 with 95% CI 0.85-1.44, p=0.46
“cause-specific hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.44”
Taken as given: The hazard ratio is 1.10 and the 95% CI is 0.85 to 1.44.; The CI is two-sided at 95%.; The p-value is two-sided.Method: Recomputed two-sided p-value from the hazard ratio and its 95% CI using the normal approximation for the log hazard ratio.How we recomputed it: pCI(1.10, 0.85, 1.44, 1) - CONSISTENTreported p < .001 · recomputed p = <.001Reviewer 1Secondary efficacy outcome: composite of death from cardiovascular causes, MI, or stroke hazard ratio 0.83 with 95% CI 0.74-0.92, p<0.001
“cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.92; P<0.001”
Taken as given: The hazard ratio is 0.83 and the 95% CI is 0.74 to 0.92.; The CI is two-sided at 95%.; The p-value is two-sided.Method: Recomputed two-sided p-value from the hazard ratio and its 95% CI using the normal approximation for the log hazard ratio.How we recomputed it: pCI(0.83, 0.74, 0.92, 1) - CONSISTENTreported p = .003 · recomputed p = .002Reviewer 1Secondary efficacy outcome: death from any cause, MI, or stroke hazard ratio 0.85 with 95% CI 0.77-0.95, p=0.003
“cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.95; P = 0.003”
Taken as given: The hazard ratio is 0.85 and the 95% CI is 0.77 to 0.95.; The CI is two-sided at 95%.; The p-value is two-sided.Method: Recomputed two-sided p-value from the hazard ratio and its 95% CI using the normal approximation for the log hazard ratio.How we recomputed it: pCI(0.85, 0.77, 0.95, 1) - CONSISTENTreported p = .080 · recomputed p = .080Reviewer 1Secondary efficacy outcome: ischemic stroke in first 90 days hazard ratio 0.84 with 95% CI 0.69-1.02, p=0.08
“cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.69 to 1.02; P = 0.08”
Taken as given: The hazard ratio is 0.84 and the 95% CI is 0.69 to 1.02.; The CI is two-sided at 95%.; The p-value is two-sided.Method: Recomputed two-sided p-value from the hazard ratio and its 95% CI using the normal approximation for the log hazard ratio.How we recomputed it: pCI(0.84, 0.69, 1.02, 1)
Overstated conclusions
None foundConclusions that reach past what the paper's own results support — including a significance claim that no longer holds when the statistic is recomputed, and efficacy resting on an unvalidated surrogate endpoint.
Checked — nothing surfaced.
4 major claims checked against the paper's own evidence: all adequately supported.
- supportedReviewers 1, 2Asundexian reduces the risk of ischemic stroke compared to placebo.The primary outcome shows a statistically significant reduction with a hazard ratio of 0.74 and p<0.001.Evidence: Primary efficacy outcome: 384/6162 (6.2%) vs 518/6165 (8.4%), HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.65-0.84, p<0.001.
“the incidence of ischemic stroke was lower in the asundexian group than in the placebo group (6.2% vs. 8.4%; cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.84; P<0.001)”
AbstractFind in source - supportedReviewers 1, 2Asundexian reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events (composite of cardiovascular death, MI, or stroke).The key secondary outcome shows a statistically significant reduction with HR 0.83 and p<0.001.Evidence: Secondary outcome: 568/6162 (9.2%) vs 685/6165 (11.1%), HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.92, p<0.001.
“The incidence of the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke was lower in the asundexian group than in the placebo group.”
AbstractFind in source - supportedReviewers 1, 2Asundexian does not increase the risk of major bleeding.The primary safety outcome shows no significant difference, with HR 1.10 and CI including 1.Evidence: Primary safety outcome: 117/6124 (1.9%) vs 107/6130 (1.7%), HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.44.
“The incidence of major bleeding was similar in the asundexian group and the placebo group (1.9% and 1.7%, respectively; cause-specific hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.44)”
AbstractFind in source - supportedReviewers 1, 2The results validate factor XIa as a therapeutic target for stroke prevention.The observed efficacy without increased bleeding supports the hypothesis, though it is an inference from the trial results.Evidence: Discussion states the observed lower risk of ischemic stroke without significant bleeding validates factor XIa as a target.
The observed lower risk of ischemic stroke without a significant increase in bleeding validates factor XIa as a therapeutic target with the potential to uncouple pathologic thrombosis from hemostasis.
Discussion ¶3reviewer’s wording
Efficacy claim is anchored to an adequate endpoint and a meaningful effect.
- ADEQUATESurrogate endpointThe primary efficacy outcome is ischemic stroke, a hard clinical outcome, not a surrogate. The trial directly measures the clinical event of interest.
“The primary efficacy outcome was the first occurrence of ischemic stroke.”
- ADEQUATEEffect sizeThe effect size is a 26% relative risk reduction in ischemic stroke (6.2% vs 8.4%, HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.65-0.84, P<0.001), which is clinically meaningful and statistically significant. The absolute risk reduction is 2.2 percentage points, and the number needed to treat is approximately 45 over 19 months.
“the incidence of ischemic stroke was lower in the asundexian group than in the placebo group (6.2% vs. 8.4%; cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.84; P<0.001)”
Data authenticity concerns
None foundAn adversarial read for patterns associated with data that may not be genuine: results that look too clean, implausibly large effects, duplicated data or images, and methods that do not match the results reported.
Checked — nothing surfaced.
Reporting gaps
1 finding · worst mediumRequired detail the manuscript never states — study design, biological variables, ethics approval and consent, key resources, statistical reporting, data and code availability, and overall transparency.
- Data/code availability incompleteAssessed
The introduction cites epidemiological and genetic evidence that low factor XI levels reduce ischemic stroke risk, and a phase 2 trial suggesting efficacy without increased bleeding. The rationale for the trial follows logically from this evidence. Limitations of prior work are implicitly addressed by the design of a large phase 3 trial, though not explicitly discussed as limitations.
Randomization was performed via an interactive web-based system with stratification, and the trial was double-blind. A priori power analysis was reported with assumptions. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were detailed. The analysis population (ITT for efficacy, safety population for safety) was defined, addressing missing data and discontinuations. Blinding of outcome adjudication was described.
“The required number of patients was determined on the basis of the assumption that 6.3% of the patients in the placebo group would have had an event at 12 months, a type I error rate of 5% (two-sided), and 90% power for the trial to achieve a hazard ratio of 0.80.”
“The required number of patients was determined on the basis of the assumption that 6.3% of the patients in the placebo group would have had an event at 12 months, a type I error rate of 5% (two-sided), and 90% power for the trial to achieve a hazard ratio of 0.80.”
The paper reports age, sex, race, and other baseline characteristics in Table 1. Both sexes are included, so sex justification is not applicable. Age and health status are reported. Species/strain and housing are not applicable for a human trial.
“Female sex — no. (%) 2063 (33.5) 2047 (33.2)”
“Age — yr 67.7±10.8 67.5±10.9”
“Race — no. (%)† White 4105 (66.6) 4078 (66.1)”
“White 4105 (66.6) 4078 (66.1)”
The paper states that relevant health authorities and independent ethics committees approved the trial, and written informed consent was obtained. Compliance with the Declaration of Helsinki and CIOMS guidelines is stated. The approval statement is adequate even without a specific IRB name, as it is a multi-center trial.
“Relevant health authorities and independent ethics committees approved the trial.”
“Relevant health authorities and independent ethics committees approved the trial.”
Asundexian is named with dose (50 mg once daily) and manufacturer (Bayer). The placebo is described as matching. No antibodies, cell lines, or other reagents are used. Statistical software is not explicitly identified, but this is covered under statistical analysis.
“Bayer sponsored the trial.”
“asundexian (at a dose of 50 mg once daily) or matching placebo”
“Bayer sponsored the trial.”
The primary analysis used cause-specific Cox proportional-hazards models and Aalen-Johansen estimates, with log-rank tests. Proportional-hazards assumptions were checked. P-values are reported exactly (e.g., P<0.001, P=0.003). Effect sizes are reported with 95% CIs. Statistical software is not explicitly named, but the analysis was performed at PHRI. Data presentation includes Kaplan-Meier curves and forest plots.
“cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.84”
The paper states 'A data sharing statement provided by the authors is available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org.' This is vague and does not specify the access mechanism. No data repository or accession numbers are provided. Code sharing is not applicable as no custom code is mentioned.
“A data sharing statement provided by the authors is available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org.”
“A data sharing statement provided by the authors is available with the full text of this article at NEJM.org.”
The trial is registered (NCT05686070). Methods are detailed. Limitations are discussed in the Discussion. Conclusions are proportional to the results. Funding and COI are disclosed. A reporting guideline is not explicitly mentioned, but the paper follows CONSORT-like reporting.
“OCEANIC-STROKE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05686070”
“Supported by Bayer.”
“OCEANIC-STROKE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05686070”
“Supported by Bayer.”
Registered (1 ID: ClinicalTrials.gov). No reporting guideline cited.
Broken references and links
None found · partly checkedReferences checked against Crossref, OpenAlex and Retraction Watch for retractions and resolvability, plus declared data and code links probed for whether they resolve to content matching the paper.
Nothing surfaced — but not everything feeding this category ran (missing: data/code link verification), so read this as a partial clean bill.
Checked 30 references by DOI: 1 verified — 29 no DOI (shown, not verified).
- NO DOIOne-year risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack or minor strokeNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIRisk of subsequent disabling or fatal stroke in patients with transient ischaemic attack or minor ischaemic stroke: an international, prospective cohort studyNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOILong-term risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysisNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIRecurrent ischemic stroke — a systematic review and meta-analysisNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOI2021 Guideline for the prevention of stroke in patients with stroke and transient ischemic attack: a guideline from the American Heart Association/American Stroke AssociationNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIClopidogrel with aspirin in acute minor stroke or transient ischemic attackNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIAspirin and clopidogrel compared with clopidogrel alone after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in high-risk patients (MATCH): randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trialNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIFactors XI and XII as Targets for New AnticoagulantsNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIReduced incidence of ischemic stroke in patients with severe factor XI deficiencyNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIGenetically determined FXI (Factor XI) levels and risk of strokeNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIPharmacological profile of asundexian, a novel, orally bioavailable inhibitor of factor XIaNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIFactor XIa inhibition with asundexian after acute non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke (PACIFIC-Stroke): an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trialNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIValidation and refinement of scores to predict very early stroke risk after transient ischaemic attackNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIClassification of subtype of acute ischemic stroke. Definitions for use in a multicenter clinical trial: TOAST: Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke TreatmentNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIDefinition of major bleeding in clinical investigations of antihemostatic medicinal products in nonsurgical patientsNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOISurvival and event history analysis: a process point of viewNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOILeveraging human genetics to estimate clinical risk reductions achievable by inhibiting factor XINo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIBleeding outcomes in patients treated with asundexian in phase II trialsNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIFactor XI deficiencyNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIVariable bleeding manifestations characterize different types of surgery in patients with severe factor XI deficiency enabling parsimonious use of replacement therapyNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIFactor XI deficiency in humansNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOITicagrelor and aspirin or aspirin alone in acute ischemic stroke or TIANo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIClopidogrel and aspirin in acute ischemic stroke and high-risk TIANo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIAspirin and extended-release dipyridamole versus clopidogrel for recurrent strokeNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIThe Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes (SPS3) studyNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIAntiplatelet therapy with aspirin, clopidogrel, and dipyridamole versus clopidogrel alone or aspirin and dipyridamole in patients with acute cerebral ischaemia (TARDIS): a randomised, open-label, phase 3 superiority trialNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIRivaroxaban with or without aspirin in stable cardiovascular diseaseNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOIStroke outcomes in the COMPASS trialNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
- NO DOITicagrelor versus aspirin in acute stroke or transient ischemic attackNo DOI in the reference — shown for manual review; not independently verifiable (not a fabrication signal).
Copyediting
None foundWording, consistency and formatting errors that need correcting before submission.
Checked — nothing surfaced.
No copyedit issues found.
The published work is robust and methodologically sound. An informed reader should weigh the minor reporting gaps (data sharing statement, software identification) as non-fatal. No erratum or re-analysis is warranted based on the evidence reviewed.
- 1.HIGHdata codeIn the Data Sharing Statement section, specify the exact mechanism for accessing de-identified patient data (e.g., via a data access committee or platform like Vivli) and the conditions and timeframe.The current statement is vague and does not meet common data availability expectations, which could be a concern for reproducibility.
- 2.HIGHreportingIn the Statistical Analysis section, explicitly name the statistical software and version used (e.g., R version, SAS version).Naming the software enhances reproducibility and is a standard reporting expectation.
- 3.MEDIUMreportingIn the Methods, explicitly reference the CONSORT reporting guideline to demonstrate adherence.Explicitly citing the guideline strengthens transparency and is a common reviewer request.
- 4.MEDIUMdata codeIf applicable, deposit aggregate or non-identifiable datasets (e.g., summary statistics) in a public repository with a DOI or accession number.Providing a repository link would improve data accessibility and transparency.
- 5.LOWreportingConsider providing a link to the full protocol and statistical analysis plan in the Data Availability section.This would allow readers to verify the pre-specified analyses and enhance trust.
The star rating is the report’s one-glance summary. Every paper starts at 5★ and loses stars for the concrete problems the review finds — so a rating is never a vague average, it’s a running total you can read line by line under “How this rating was calculated.”
- Reporting — 8 dimensionseach dimension that fully fails−½★
- each dimension partially met−¼★
- Statistics · Integrity · Claimseach serious problem−1★
- each medium problem−½★
- Citationseach retracted or unverifiable reference−¼★
- Copyeditonly when the manuscript needs a full edit−½★
The rating never drops below 1★, and a demonstrable critical failure (an impossible statistic, a proven ethics violation) caps it at 1★ on its own — so the stars can never look healthy when the verdict is CRITICAL.
The rating draws on a panel of agents. Three independent Kaimen Rigor reviewers grade the eight dimensions below across several independent passes (the shown verdict is their majority vote — steadier than any single run), isolate the paper’s major claims and check its own evidence backs them, and flag integrity concerns. Alongside them, a citation agent resolves every reference against Crossref, OpenAlex, and Retraction Watch; a statistics agent recomputes reported tests; and rule-based checks verify that declared data/code links actually resolve. Full text is required — an abstract-only submission is not analyzed.
Graded against NIH, MDAR, ARRIVE 2.0, CONSORT, EQUATOR, and RRID guidelines. A dimension that doesn’t apply to the study type is skipped, never penalized.
This Kaimen Rigor review is model-assisted and is not a substitute for formal expert review. It complements human evaluation by surfacing potential methodological concerns — verify each finding against the source.